Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?
...
Navarro Mamani, Dennis Alexander | 2023
Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild
ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable
environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated
whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and
Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence
records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary
general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary
presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping.
The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current
climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and
expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two
niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate
scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological
and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections
in Peru.
Keywords: Peru; bluetongue virus; Culicoides insignis; ecological niche; climate change
LEER