Evaluation of the Effect of the ENSO Cycle on the Distribution Potential of the Genus Anastrepha of Horticultural Importance in the Neotropics and Panama
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Batista Degracia, Arturo | 2023
Climate variability has made us change our perspective on the study of insect pests and
pest insects, focusing on preserving or maintaining efficient production systems in the world economy.
The four species of the genus Anastrepha were selected for this study due to their colonization and
expansion characteristics. Models of the potential distribution of these species are scarce in most
neotropical countries, and there is a current and pressing demand to carry out this type of analysis
in the face of the common scenarios of climate variability. We analyzed 370 presence records with
statistical metrics and 16 bioclimatic variables. The MaxEnt method was used to evaluate the effect of
the ENSO cycle on the potential distribution of the species Anastrepha grandis (Macquart), Anastrepha
serpetina (Wiedemann), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha striata (Schiner) as imported
horticultural pests in the neotropics and Panama. A total of 3472 candidate models were obtained
for each species, and the environmental variables with the greatest contribution to the final models
were LST range and LST min for A. grandis, PRECIP range and PRECIP min for A. serpentina, LST
range and LST min for A. obliqua, and LST min and LST max for A. striata. The percentage expansion
of the range of A. grandis in all environmental scenarios was 26.46 and the contraction of the range
was 30.80; the percentage expansion of the range of A. serpentina in all environmental scenarios was
3.15 and the contraction of the range was 28.49; the percentage expansion of the range of A. obliqua in
all environmental scenarios was 5.71 and the contraction of the range was 3.40; and the percentage
expansion of the range of A. striata in all environmental scenarios was 41.08 and the contraction of
the range was 7.30, and we selected the best model, resulting in a wide distribution (suitable areas)
of these species in the neotropics that was influenced by the variability of climatic events (El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña). Information is provided on the phytosanitary surveillance systems of the
countries in areas where these species could be established, which is useful for defining policies and
making decisions on integrated management plans according to sustainable agriculture.
Keywords: geographic distribution; ENSO Anastrepha; horticulture; neotropics; Panama
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